Weekend Winners Club

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Saturday January 25, 2025.Hallandale Beach, FL.  Gulfstream Park highlights graded stakes racing in January as usual, concluding the last weekend of racing with the Pegasus World Cup.  The 13 race card contains 1 listed stakes and 7 graded stakes, culminating with the two G1 World Cup races.

The Pegasus World Cup G1’s on dirt and turf highlight January for Gulfstream.

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After morning scratches, 144 horses are still entered in today’s racing at GP, with the first post at an early 11AM ET.  Stakes racing begins at 1PM with the GP turf sprint, and the graded stakes will begin just after 2PM.  The Pegasus races are the last two at 5PM and 540PM.

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Weather is sunny with no clouds and zero chance of rain, with temperatures ascending from 61 to 71 degrees in the afternoon.  Yes if you are anywhere else in the USA, you would wish you were here right now.  All races remain on their scheduled surfaces. There’s a Jackpot 6 carryover of $375k.

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Let’s make some predictions with an emphasis on long shot specials.  I don’t bet on favorites, never have except to include them in exotics because it’s normally stupid not to do so.  Straight up, absolutely not.  So if you don’t hear me mention a favorite in a race, that’s why.  We do long shots.  Let’s take a look at the stakes racing.  Download today’s free GRID to follow along.

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R5 1:02ET 5f T GpTrfSptL165k 4 UP

11           Reef Runner       12           P3           You like long shots? 12-1 ML isn’t bad for a legit contender.

The others that look good here are all 6-1 or less ML so I won’t mention them.

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R6 1:33ET 8.31f A Hcp100000 4 UP

3              Stanley House   8              P5

10           Evade    10           P3

1              In A Jam               12           EP1

6              Exact Estimate   8              EP7

I don’t have to tell you why.  Look at the Grid and figure it out.

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R7 2:04ET 12f T LaPrvyte-G3 4 UP FM

Chalk, chalk, chalk, literally are my top 3, then add a couple long shots.  Maybe box’em and hope. Don’t bother betting unless you include the long shots.   Either could actually win as well.

2              Whatlovelookslike           12           EP4

6              Marksman Queen            10           E5

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R8 2:41ET 8f D FHooper-G3 4 UP

It’s hard to envision the two favorites not going 1-2 or 1,3.  After that, the next 2-3 logical mounts are also next in ML odds.  Ugh.  I’ll pass this one except in the rollers.  Here’s my long shot special:

8              Bourbon Resolve              10           P1

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R9 3:13ET 12f T WLMcKnt-G3 4 UP

This race is Bold Act then everyone else. But the chink in the armor is, there’s almost no speed in this race.  Does that matter in a 12f turf race?  Yes it does.  Here are your early pace specials that could hold up for a piece:

3              Cathkin Peak      20           EP7

13           Dashman             15           P5

14           Capture The Flag              15           EP5

16           Lorenz  30           P0

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R10 3:45ET 8.5f T PWCFMTIv-G2 4 UP FM

Thanks to the AE’s there’s a decent amount of speed in here.  Here’s your pack of top LP’s.

6              Dona Clota          15           NA0

7              Minoushka         10           S0

8              Papilio   8              P3

10           Sacred Wish        4.5          P4

11           Bless My Stars   8              S0

12           See You Around 20           EP4

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R11 4:20ET 7f D InsdInfo-G2 4 UP FM

5 horse race.  No way I would touch betting this, but in your rollers include the 2 faves.

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R12 4:55ET 9f T PWCTfInv-G1 4 UP

Alas the first of the World Cup races.  I don’t know what happened to Nation’s Pride last out at the Bahrain Turf Club, but whatever.  It’s one race gone bad.  He’s the one to beat.  However, with he and Integration solidified as the chalk, that means almost everyone else is a long shot.  Here

2              Formidable Man               15           EP3

3              Mi Hermano Ramon        8              P1

4              Win For The Money        12           P3

8              Spirit Of St Louis               20           EP4

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R13 5:40ET 9f D PWCInvit-G1 4 UP

White Abarrio stayed ahead of Charge It in the April 2022 Florida Derby, adding to his Holy Bull win. (Eclipse)

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The grand finale includes one BC Classic winner White Abarrio as the 2^nd ML choice, and 1 Kentucky Derby winner, starting at 8-1 ML after a couple of bad races.  The ML fav is Locked in after a Cigar Mile G1 win. In addition to those 3 aI would like to present a couple of others:

1              Mixto    10           EP6         Last year’s Pacific Classic G1 winner.

2              Saudi Crown       4.5          EP6         Back in form after a horrid BC performance.

Mostly not great odds on anyone likable here either, unfortunately, but anything can happen.

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Good luck in your racing and wagering endeavours!

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Press here to get THE GRID for all your favorite tracks and races!

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Click here to Donate if this precap analysis helped you out today.

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January 21 2025.  The Kentucky Derby Futures Pool ran last weekend from Jan.17 to Jan.19 and turned a handle of $328,150, increasing the total of the Derby pari-mutuel pools to $810k.

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Use this link for the wagering recap from KD: KDF-POOL3-RECAP

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The majority of bettors are still not convinced that the champion is listed in this Pool, however, as the vaunted field once again took the biggest handle and wound up as the 4-1 favorite.

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The top individual entry and only single digit horse was Barnes, who has raced and won twice for Bob Baffert, last winning the San Vicente at only 7f earlier this month.

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Barnes won the 2025 San Vicente G2 in January his second time out for Baffert.

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Bettors were quick to dismount Baffert’s previous favorite, Citizen Bull, who did little wrong last year while winning two Grade 1’s including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  Bull wound up 4th in the individual betting at 17-1. 

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Patch Adams was next in betting at 12-1 after winning exactly one race, breaking his maiden second time out at Churchill for Brad Cox.  After losing his first race.

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Next up was East Avenue, clocking in at 15-1, ahead of Citizen Bull, who finished 13 lengths ahead of him in the BC Juvenile.  Given, he did stumble at the break, but also the trainer is Brendan Walsh, who has had very few horses even qualify for the Derby.

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So the bettors must know more than you? Most likely, not.  You will have this site at your disposal to stay more informed than them.  Stay tuned for the first Derby Double Dozen rankings later this month.  You will see the link at the top or side menu.

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January 2025 Thoroughbred Horse Racing Stakes Schedule and Results for North America and Japan. Warm weather tracks Gulfstream and Santa Anita serve up the bulk of stakes racing in January as usual.  Stay tuned here for updated results.

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The Pegasus World Cup G1’s on dirt and turf highlight January for Gulfstream.

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2025 January Thoroughbred Stakes Schedule & Results NTRA & JRA

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Get The Grid for all your favorite tracks and races here!

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December 2024 Thoroughbred Stakes Results North America

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2024 December Thoroughbred Graded Stakes Results NTRA

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Get the Grid for all your favorite tracks and races here!

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Wednesday, November 27, 2024.

Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 2 is now upon us, along with the KDF sires pool, making this a great weekend to make money payable on the first Saturday of May.  Pool 2 opens Thursday November 28 (Thanksgiving) and will close at 6pm on Sunday, December 1.

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Fortunately for you, we are providing the KDF2 Grid free of charge, downloadable instantly right here.  Highlighted are the 6-pack of horses competing this weekend.  5 are in the Kentucky Jockey Club G2, and one in the FSN Reality 300k at Gulfstream.

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At first glance of the KDF2 Grid, a couple things stand out, namely the two horses that have achieved a triple digit Grid PF.  One is obviously Citizen Bull, BC Juvenile G1 winner trained by Baffert.  We don’t even need to discuss those qualifications, but 20-1 ML seems like quite a bargain.

Citizen Bull ran away in the 2024 BC Juvenile G1 at Del Mar

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Second, Rated By Merit, the only entry competing in Saturday’s FSN Reality stakes, in which he is the 3-5 ML favorite.  Looking at that race, it’s difficult to envision him not winning it, albeit his first time at two turns, as is most of the field in that race.

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Even if and when RTM does win the FSNR, there is a history of these horses coming up thru the state-restricted circuit in Florida or any other state for that matter.  Namely, they flop when competing in open company in graded stakes races.  But let’s hope that doesn’t happen.

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That brings us to the 5 young colts in KDF2 that comprise half the field of the Kentucky Jockey Club G2 on Saturday.  Numerically, these steeds seem inferior to the above two already mentioned, with only one of them breaking the 90 PF barrier, far short of the 100 achieved by the top two.

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Jonathan’s Way is the mild 5-2 favorite, with two straight PF’s of 90+, including the Iroquois win.  An obvious favorite in this race, but he lost to Citizen Bull by 7 lengths last out in the BCJ.  There’s no way I can justify recommending a KDF2 bet on him.

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Aside from that, he may not even be the best colt in that race.  Lining up at the 1 post right next to him will be He’s Not Joking, coming down from Canada after winning the Grey G3 going away, with a 92PF, the highest in that field.  He’s not in KDF2, but at 8-1 I would bet him to win the KYJCGCG2.

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RECOMMENDED KENTUCKY DERBY POOL 2 BETS:

BARNES (25-1 ML):  Unraced $3.2 million colt trained by Baffert

CITIZEN BULL (20-1):  BC Juvenile G1 winner trained by Baffert

RATED BY MERIT (50-1):  undefeated stakes winner trained by Michael Yates

GRAYSCALE (99-1):  Frosted colt, stumbled to victory in debut, Saffie Joseph trainer.

BULLARD (30-1):  Bob Hope G3 winner (Gun Runner, Michael McCarthy)

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SIRES!

It looks painfully obvious when you look at the KDF2 Grid, which includes sires, who the top sire is for this go around.  Into Mischief has Citizen Bull (aforementioned), Donut God, Patch Adams, and Street Sense Stakes winner Sovereignty, and…

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Don’t forget the unraced $3.2 million colt Barnes, also trained by Baffert, who will likely try to pull a Justify with him and not even race him until next year.  25-1 ML looks like a tempting wager on that one.  All told, Into Mischief has at least 5 serious competitors, but his ML is only 12-1.

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We talked a lot about Rated By Merit, but he’s the only Battalion Runner, a sire who doesn’t even appear in the Sires Pool, meaning he would be All Other Sires at 12-1 ML.  I can go along with that, because you never know. Gun Runner is at 30-1 with two very fast colts and one not so fast.

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RECOMMENDED SIRES BETS:

INTO MISCHIEF (12-1):  4 proven racers and one unraced $3.2 million Baffert trainee.  Bet it now.

ALL OTHER SIRES (12-1):  as long as you’re getting double digit odds, if not then pass.

GUN RUNNER (30-1):  only 2 proven runners of Derby caliber, but great odds for a great sire.

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When you cash in the first Saturday of May, feel free to send us a donation.  Good luck!

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You can get THE GRID for all your favorite tracks and races right here!

Sat.Nov.2 Breeders’ Cup Day 2: The Classic and 8 other G1’s.  Precap, Picks, Predictions

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Saturday November 2 2024.  Day 2 of the Breeders’ Cup World Championships is underway at sunny Del Mar today, with 130 horses competing for over $23 million USD in purse money, making it the most expensive race day in North American history.

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The highlight is the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic is the featured race, with 14 of the finest racers in the world, aging from 3 to 6 years old, competing for a new record $7 million purse.  It will be the 8^th race, scheduled for 5:41PM ET.  Let’s start with the Classic then work our way to other races.

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The most expensive Breeders’ Cup races in 2024:  The Grade 1 Turf and Classic sponsored by Longines.

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Get the full Breeders’ Cup Grid and all the other weekend races here.

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The most expensive Breeders’ Cup races in 2024: The Grade 1 Turf and Classic sponsored by Longines.

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R8 5:41ET 10f D BCClasic-G1 3 UP 

I like the morning line odds here, but if yesterday was any indicator, the real competitors including those that I mention here, will come way down in price closer to post time.

First of all I’m throwing out the morning line favorite City of Troy.  He may have the highest Timeform figure for his win last out at York in the Juddmont but is unraced on dirt. Aidan O’brien yesterday tied Wayne Lukas for the most Breeders’ Cup wins, but only two on dirt, and never this race.

13 Newgate 20-1:  Bob Baffert has won this race 4 times, and enters this horse with the tied highest Grid PF and second highest Timeform dirt PF, last out in the 9f Cali Crown G1, finishing 3^rd by a neck.  The top two finishers there are notedly not racing today.

4 Mixto 30-1:  Virtually tied for the highest Grid PF, achieved last out in the Pac Classic G1 win, right here at Del Mar at the same distance.  Doug O is no stranger to the Breeders’ Cup and this horse like Newgate, has a great running style for this race.

9 Fierceness 3-1:  The best last out pair of PF’s and highest Timeform rating, achieved last out in the Travers G1.  Post time favoritism will likely go to this Pletcher trainee.

14 Next 8-1:  The 6 year old gelding brings not only vast experience, but the best trio of PF’s in his last 3, all stakes wins.  He rides a 7 race winning streak by a combined 92 lengths, or an astounding average of 14 lengths per victory for Bill Cowans.  He also has the best two PF’s overall.

11 Sierra Leone 12-1:  The youngster hasn’t registered a win for a while, but finished 3^rd in the Travers, 2^nd in the Jim Dandy, 3^rd in the Belmont Stakes, and 2^nd in the Kentucky Derby this year.  He likely won’t get the fast pace up front for his best race but should hit the board for Chad Brown.

2 Highland Falls 20-1:  Brings some competitive races and PF’s and a very competitive trainer in Brad Cox.  Last out he won the Jockey Club Gold Cup G1 at this distance.

1 Forever Young (JPN) 6-1:  He would be undefeated except for his narrow 3^rd place finish in this year’s Kentucky Derby, with all his victories coming in Japan, Dubai, and Saudi.

Those are your top 7 and I don’t see a good reason to include any others in your wagering.

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R7 5:01ET 12f T BCTurf-G1 3 UP 

Again I have 7 contenders, and against conventional wisdom, I’m going with Americans at the top two positions, but I can justify it with Christophe Clement and Todd Pletcher.

6 Far Bridge at 6-1 has the best PF’s and Timeform ratings, and has won two straight G1’s at this distance.

7 Grand Sonata comes off a G1 win at this distance for Pletcher.

After that I like the Charles Appleby favorite, followed by the other two single digit runners.

Give long shots Shahryar and Luxembourg a chance to hit the board.

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R4 3:00ET 7f D BCFMSprt-G1 3 UP FM

The first Breeders’ Cup race of the day feature 8 females going 7 furlongs for $1 million.

6 4 2 9 is my call with not many good odds.

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R5 3:41ET 5f T BCTrfSpt-G1 3 UP 

I’m not going to argue against the two favorites but it takes more than that to make up a trifecta or superfecta.  A 5f turf race will be over in 55 seconds so I’m looking for speed.

5 Ag Bullet fits the bill and has the highest Grid and Timeform PF and 10-1 ML.

7 Howard Wolowitz is young, improving, and coming off a G1 win, at 30-1.

10 Isivunguvungu is fun to attempt to pronounce and offers 20-1 ML.

Sprinkle in the horses trained by people with last name of Appleby for good measure.

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R6 4:21ET 9f D BCDistaf-G1 3 UP FM

Boxing Sugar Fish and Honor Lady with the two favorites for a superfecta.

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R9 6:25ET 11f T BCFMTrf-G1 3 UP FM

I would love to see Full Count Felicia hold on to a gate to wire victory at 12-1, with Dida at 12-1 and Moira at 8-1, defying Appleby and O’brien’s attempt to sweep the trifecta.

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R10 7:05ET 6f D BCSprint-G1 3 UP 

There aren’t really great odds for the horses I like here except for maybe Raging Torrent and Skelly, but they could well burn out in a speed duel. Nakatomi could have the upper hand here.

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R11 7:45ET 8f T BCMile-G1 3 UP 

There isn’t much speed for an 8f race so I would like Carl Spackler and Goliad to finish ITM with big late runs by More Than Looks and Chili Flag.

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R12 8:25ET 8f D BCDirtMi-G1 3 UP 

Unlike the turf mile, this one does have a lot of early speed for 8f, so I’m looking for Post Time to gobble them up, and some good late running by Katonah. At least 2 of the 3 favorites will finish in the super.

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Good luck!

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November 2024 Thoroughbred Stakes Schedule and Results for North America and Japan.  This month blasts off with the Breeders’ Cup World Championships at Del Mar.  See table below.

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Del Mar will once again host the Breeders’ Cup Championships

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Get The Grid for all your favorite stakes races and tracks. 

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November 2024 Thoroughbred Stakes Racing Schedule and Results for NTRA and JRA.

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October 2024 Thoroughbred Graded Stakes Results for North America, Great Britain, and Japan. See table below for all graded stakes race results.

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October 2024 Thoroughbred Graded Stakes Results for NTRA, BHA, JRA Results:

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Get The Grid for the Breeders’ Cup World Championships here.

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Thursday October 31, 2024.  Futures Pool 1 for the 2025 edition of the Kentucky Derby is open for business and will close on Friday November 1 at 6PM ET, which is about two hours before the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile will be contested at Del Mar.

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10 great young colts will be competing for the $2 million dollar BC Juvenile purse money scheduled for 19:45PM Pacific.  About 100 other juvenile colts, geldings, and fillies will be competing in 4 other BC Grade 1 stakes for $5 million more in purses, and 3 juvenile stakes on the undercard.

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Here is a snapshot of the Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 1 Grid free, as promised, no strings or springs attached.  You can also download below that: just right click, touchpad-hold, or press-hold on mobile, then select download link.  It’s that simple.

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Kentucky Derby 2025 Futures Pool 1 Grid

KDF10312024G

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You can see that the 10 BC Juvenile G1 competitors are all highlighted in the Pool 1 Grid, along with 28 other individual entries, and the two field bets.  You will note that All other 3yo (who are now 2yo) males is the 4-5 ML favorite.

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This is a normal occurrence in KDF1, as most people including the initial oddsmakers, don’t think the real Derby winner is on the radar yet.

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However, you will see the name Bob Baffert listed 5 times, including the unraced 22 All American Dream (not a typo.)  Also, betting on a 4-5 field or as it currently is 3-5, is just a stupid wager.  Any horse you wager on Derby day will be higher than that.

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But the most interesting young colt to me is Rated By Merit, at 60-1 ML, undefeated in 3, with not only the highest PF but the highest two PF’s on the board, which increased with the additional furlong last out at 7f in the Affirmed Stakes.

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Rated By Merit (Battalion Runner / Banner Waving) Affirmed Stakes winner

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The only caveat I include about the Yates trainee is the winners coming up thru the state-restricted Florida circuit usually have a bad record in open company, but at 60-1 who cares? If he does end up making the Derby field, the odds will likely be lower on that day.

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Before you leave the site, make sure you visit the Breeders’ Cup Juvy Day page for some picks and predictions for the full Friday race card.

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And as usual, you can get the Breeders’ Cup Grid and all the weekend’s major track grids here.

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Friday, November 1 2024.  The much anticipated Breeders’ Cup World Championships begins on Friday with Juvenile Day.  All 5 Breeders’ Cup races are Grade 1’s for two-year-olds in various categories, each worth $1 million in purse money, except the BC Juvenile and BC Juvenile fillies, worth $2 million each.

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Del Mar will once again host the Breeders’ Cup Championships in 2024

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The 5 race BC card begins at 5:45PM Eastern, giving plenty of time for the eastern half of the USA to get involved.  The 5 race undercard begins at 2:35PM ET and includes 4 more races for 2yo’s.  West coasters shouldn’t have any problem getting up by 11:35AM after their Halloween hangovers.

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Let’s highlight some of the races here using the Grid, with an emphasis on long shots.

Get the Breeders’ Cup Grid and grids for all your favorite tracks and races here!

(What is the Grid? Hint, it looks like that below but full sized.)

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Intriguing Breeders’ Cup Juvenile undercard stakes races at Del Mar Nov.1

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R3 3:45ET 7f D GldStJuvFB175k 2 YO F

Watch out for #9 In the Air Tonight at 15-1 ML with a couple of the best PF’s on the board.

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R4 4:25ET 8f T TBAftrcAlB200k 2 YO 

This big field of 14 after alternates processed, has a lot of talented turf juvies.

2. Smash It is the fastest horse, with ML 10-1.
3. Cavallo Bay is also representing the east coast looking good at 15-1.

9 and 10.  Ditto above comment.

13. Test Score has top LP at 15-1ML and should have plenty of speed to run at.

15-18 won’t draw in unless others scratch.

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R5 5:05ET 7f D GoldStJuvB175k 2 YO 

The SAX MSW pair of 2 and 7 could run 1-2 in this also, but the two favorites are solid.

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R6 5:45ET 5f T BCJvTfSp-G1 2 YO 

Favored Ecoro Sieg is supposed do battle with the Doncaster Carlsberg pair for the title, but…

Smash It is the fastest US horse in the race at 20-1 but is an alternate.

Governor Sam is the fastest US horse that is in the main entry list, at 12-1.

Keep in mind that the fastest US horses usually win this race even though it’s on turf.

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R7 6:25ET 8.5f D BCJuvFil-G1 2 YO F

2yo fillies?  Say Bob Baffert.  The two favorites plus Vodka With a Twist and Quickick will challenge.

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R8 7:05ET 8f T BCJvFlTf-G1 2 YO F

Another big field that will reduce to 14 after scratches. It’s hard to argue against an Aiden O’Brien / Ryan Moore favorite in a BC turf race, but the slew of 5 American fillies from posts 3-7 look just as strong and have actually run 2-turn races.  4 of them have double digit odds.

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R9 7:45ET 8.5f D BCJuvnle-G1 2 YO C&G

Ah, the long awaited BC Juvenile! A solid field of 10 will take to 2-turns, including 3 from Baffert’s barn.

If you told me nothing but that, I would just box the 3 Baffert horses, especially if you told me that the odds were 8-1, 10-1, and 20-1, and 2 of them ran 1-2 in the American Pharoah.

But the single digit ML horses all have strong preps too.  The only easy thing about handicapping this one is that you can throw out the 3 foreigners.

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Now as a quick semi-aside:  all 10 of these competitors are appearing as individual entries in Kentucky Derby 2025 Futures  Pool 1, which is live now until Friday Nov.1 at 6PM, or about two hours before the BC Juvenile will be contested.  So if you like any of them, get them at good odds in KDF1.

Get the Derby Futures Pool 1 Grid FREE with some brief analysis here!

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R10 8:25ET 8f T BCJuvTrf-G1 2 YO C&G

This could be a rerun of the Summer Stakes at Woodbine, of which Dream On is 20-1 ML.

But what the hell are the Bourbon G2 winner and Zuma Beach runner up doing at 30-1?!

Also watch out for the Japanese racer undefeated in two at Tokyo.

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The Breeders’ Cup Schedule and BC Challenge race results are posted here.

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Stay tuned tomorrow for the Saturday picks including the $7 MILLION BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC!

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Once again, get the Breeders’ Cup Grids full cards for both race days right here!

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