Weekend Winners Club

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Thursday, May 2, Churchill Downs. As part of our all-inclusive Kentucky Derby angles series leading up to the run for the roses, today we take a look at the Derby jockeys and trainers, and their relevance. This is by far the easiest of all the analytics, but also one of the most relevant.
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First take a look at this snapshot of modern history Baffert Era Kentucky Derby winners.
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Emboldened are those who were repeat Derby winners, either for the 2nd, 3rd, or Nth time. Note they are not in bold the first time they won the Derby, only subsequent times in which they actually repeated. It doesn’t take long to see that this data set is riddled with jockeys and trainers who are repeat winners.
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We begin the data set with 1997 because it is known as the Baffert Era, marking Bob Baffert’s first of 5 Kentucky Derby champions. You will also notice that the past 4 Kentucky Derby editions have been won by a repeat jockey AND a repeat trainer.
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Now one of these trends is likely to continue, and the other is actually not, and I’ll tell you why. First, we’re still very much in the Baffert era, as marked by his 2 Triple Crown champions in 4 years. This year, he has (after the scratch of Omaha Beach) the top 3 ranked horses in our Derby Dozen.
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Further, most of the trainers you see on that list are still very active, and some of them have contestants in this year’s Derby. The graphic below shows you this year’s Kentucky Derby competitors along with their trainer and rider, and some other info you can ignore for now if you desire.
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You can see the Baffert trio which will be the top 3 betting choices. Also, Todd, Kirian, Shoog, and Servis are looking to become repeat champions. I would definitely shorten my list of contenders to this list, and personally I’m further shortening it to Baffert for additional reasons.
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Of the other trainers looking to crack the nut for their first title, there are several that always have a good chance. It’s not the first rodeo by any stretch for trainers like Trombetta, Mott, and Asmussen, nor will it be the last. Casse and Calhoun could win it one of these years too, or even one of the others.
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The jockey column tells an entirely different story. Most of the jocks you saw on the prior graphic are retired, from riding anyway. But there are only 2 on the list that even have the possibility of a repeat win here. Given one of them is on a Baffert favorite, so Joel has got a great chance for his 2nd win. But the odds are statistically 9 of 10 it will be a first time winning jockey.
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So the conclusion here is that it will be yet another repeat trainer winning the Derby, and probably a jockey that hasn’t won it before. Although, if you follow our Derby Dozen, Game Winner has been ranked #1 all year, so we’re hoping Rosario will win another one.
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This again strengthens the position of our Derby Dozen rankings, which isn’t just guesswork, but an expert ranking based on all these factors we’re presenting you leading up to the Kentucky Derby.
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So our top picks according to this study would be as follows:
Game Winner
Roadster
Improbable
Maximum Security
(small gap then)
Code of Honor
Cutting Humor
Haikal
Spinoff

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How do you get the Kentucky Derby Grid? Click here.
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