Loading ...Nov 27 2024
Thanksgiving early: Kentucky Derby Pool 2 / Sires Futures Analysis
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Wednesday, November 27, 2024.
Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 2 is now upon us, along with the KDF sires pool, making this a great weekend to make money payable on the first Saturday of May. Pool 2 opens Thursday November 28 (Thanksgiving) and will close at 6pm on Sunday, December 1.
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Fortunately for you, we are providing the KDF2 Grid free of charge, downloadable instantly right here. Highlighted are the 6-pack of horses competing this weekend. 5 are in the Kentucky Jockey Club G2, and one in the FSN Reality 300k at Gulfstream.
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At first glance of the KDF2 Grid, a couple things stand out, namely the two horses that have achieved a triple digit Grid PF. One is obviously Citizen Bull, BC Juvenile G1 winner trained by Baffert. We don’t even need to discuss those qualifications, but 20-1 ML seems like quite a bargain.
Citizen Bull ran away in the 2024 BC Juvenile G1 at Del Mar
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Second, Rated By Merit, the only entry competing in Saturday’s FSN Reality stakes, in which he is the 3-5 ML favorite. Looking at that race, it’s difficult to envision him not winning it, albeit his first time at two turns, as is most of the field in that race.
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Even if and when RTM does win the FSNR, there is a history of these horses coming up thru the state-restricted circuit in Florida or any other state for that matter. Namely, they flop when competing in open company in graded stakes races. But let’s hope that doesn’t happen.
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That brings us to the 5 young colts in KDF2 that comprise half the field of the Kentucky Jockey Club G2 on Saturday. Numerically, these steeds seem inferior to the above two already mentioned, with only one of them breaking the 90 PF barrier, far short of the 100 achieved by the top two.
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Jonathan’s Way is the mild 5-2 favorite, with two straight PF’s of 90+, including the Iroquois win. An obvious favorite in this race, but he lost to Citizen Bull by 7 lengths last out in the BCJ. There’s no way I can justify recommending a KDF2 bet on him.
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Aside from that, he may not even be the best colt in that race. Lining up at the 1 post right next to him will be He’s Not Joking, coming down from Canada after winning the Grey G3 going away, with a 92PF, the highest in that field. He’s not in KDF2, but at 8-1 I would bet him to win the KYJCGCG2.
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RECOMMENDED KENTUCKY DERBY POOL 2 BETS:
BARNES (25-1 ML): Unraced $3.2 million colt trained by Baffert
CITIZEN BULL (20-1): BC Juvenile G1 winner trained by Baffert
RATED BY MERIT (50-1): undefeated stakes winner trained by Michael Yates
GRAYSCALE (99-1): Frosted colt, stumbled to victory in debut, Saffie Joseph trainer.
BULLARD (30-1): Bob Hope G3 winner (Gun Runner, Michael McCarthy)
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SIRES!
It looks painfully obvious when you look at the KDF2 Grid, which includes sires, who the top sire is for this go around. Into Mischief has Citizen Bull (aforementioned), Donut God, Patch Adams, and Street Sense Stakes winner Sovereignty, and…
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Don’t forget the unraced $3.2 million colt Barnes, also trained by Baffert, who will likely try to pull a Justify with him and not even race him until next year. 25-1 ML looks like a tempting wager on that one. All told, Into Mischief has at least 5 serious competitors, but his ML is only 12-1.
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We talked a lot about Rated By Merit, but he’s the only Battalion Runner, a sire who doesn’t even appear in the Sires Pool, meaning he would be All Other Sires at 12-1 ML. I can go along with that, because you never know. Gun Runner is at 30-1 with two very fast colts and one not so fast.
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RECOMMENDED SIRES BETS:
INTO MISCHIEF (12-1): 4 proven racers and one unraced $3.2 million Baffert trainee. Bet it now.
ALL OTHER SIRES (12-1): as long as you’re getting double digit odds, if not then pass.
GUN RUNNER (30-1): only 2 proven runners of Derby caliber, but great odds for a great sire.
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When you cash in the first Saturday of May, feel free to send us a donation. Good luck!
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You can get THE GRID for all your favorite tracks and races right here!
