Weekend Winners Club

Sat.Nov.2 Breeders’ Cup Day 2: The Classic and 8 other G1’s.  Precap, Picks, Predictions

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Saturday November 2 2024.  Day 2 of the Breeders’ Cup World Championships is underway at sunny Del Mar today, with 130 horses competing for over $23 million USD in purse money, making it the most expensive race day in North American history.

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The highlight is the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic is the featured race, with 14 of the finest racers in the world, aging from 3 to 6 years old, competing for a new record $7 million purse.  It will be the 8^th race, scheduled for 5:41PM ET.  Let’s start with the Classic then work our way to other races.

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The most expensive Breeders’ Cup races in 2024:  The Grade 1 Turf and Classic sponsored by Longines.

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Get the full Breeders’ Cup Grid and all the other weekend races here.

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R8 5:41ET 10f D BCClasic-G1 3 UP 

I like the morning line odds here, but if yesterday was any indicator, the real competitors including those that I mention here, will come way down in price closer to post time.

First of all I’m throwing out the morning line favorite City of Troy.  He may have the highest Timeform figure for his win last out at York in the Juddmont but is unraced on dirt. Aidan O’brien yesterday tied Wayne Lukas for the most Breeders’ Cup wins, but only two on dirt, and never this race.

13 Newgate 20-1:  Bob Baffert has won this race 4 times, and enters this horse with the tied highest Grid PF and second highest Timeform dirt PF, last out in the 9f Cali Crown G1, finishing 3^rd by a neck.  The top two finishers there are notedly not racing today.

4 Mixto 30-1:  Virtually tied for the highest Grid PF, achieved last out in the Pac Classic G1 win, right here at Del Mar at the same distance.  Doug O is no stranger to the Breeders’ Cup and this horse like Newgate, has a great running style for this race.

9 Fierceness 3-1:  The best last out pair of PF’s and highest Timeform rating, achieved last out in the Travers G1.  Post time favoritism will likely go to this Pletcher trainee.

14 Next 8-1:  The 6 year old gelding brings not only vast experience, but the best trio of PF’s in his last 3, all stakes wins.  He rides a 7 race winning streak by a combined 92 lengths, or an astounding average of 14 lengths per victory for Bill Cowans.  He also has the best two PF’s overall.

11 Sierra Leone 12-1:  The youngster hasn’t registered a win for a while, but finished 3^rd in the Travers, 2^nd in the Jim Dandy, 3^rd in the Belmont Stakes, and 2^nd in the Kentucky Derby this year.  He likely won’t get the fast pace up front for his best race but should hit the board for Chad Brown.

2 Highland Falls 20-1:  Brings some competitive races and PF’s and a very competitive trainer in Brad Cox.  Last out he won the Jockey Club Gold Cup G1 at this distance.

1 Forever Young (JPN) 6-1:  He would be undefeated except for his narrow 3^rd place finish in this year’s Kentucky Derby, with all his victories coming in Japan, Dubai, and Saudi.

Those are your top 7 and I don’t see a good reason to include any others in your wagering.

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R7 5:01ET 12f T BCTurf-G1 3 UP 

Again I have 7 contenders, and against conventional wisdom, I’m going with Americans at the top two positions, but I can justify it with Christophe Clement and Todd Pletcher.

6 Far Bridge at 6-1 has the best PF’s and Timeform ratings, and has won two straight G1’s at this distance.

7 Grand Sonata comes off a G1 win at this distance for Pletcher.

After that I like the Charles Appleby favorite, followed by the other two single digit runners.

Give long shots Shahryar and Luxembourg a chance to hit the board.

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R4 3:00ET 7f D BCFMSprt-G1 3 UP FM

The first Breeders’ Cup race of the day feature 8 females going 7 furlongs for $1 million.

6 4 2 9 is my call with not many good odds.

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R5 3:41ET 5f T BCTrfSpt-G1 3 UP 

I’m not going to argue against the two favorites but it takes more than that to make up a trifecta or superfecta.  A 5f turf race will be over in 55 seconds so I’m looking for speed.

5 Ag Bullet fits the bill and has the highest Grid and Timeform PF and 10-1 ML.

7 Howard Wolowitz is young, improving, and coming off a G1 win, at 30-1.

10 Isivunguvungu is fun to attempt to pronounce and offers 20-1 ML.

Sprinkle in the horses trained by people with last name of Appleby for good measure.

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R6 4:21ET 9f D BCDistaf-G1 3 UP FM

Boxing Sugar Fish and Honor Lady with the two favorites for a superfecta.

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R9 6:25ET 11f T BCFMTrf-G1 3 UP FM

I would love to see Full Count Felicia hold on to a gate to wire victory at 12-1, with Dida at 12-1 and Moira at 8-1, defying Appleby and O’brien’s attempt to sweep the trifecta.

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R10 7:05ET 6f D BCSprint-G1 3 UP 

There aren’t really great odds for the horses I like here except for maybe Raging Torrent and Skelly, but they could well burn out in a speed duel. Nakatomi could have the upper hand here.

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R11 7:45ET 8f T BCMile-G1 3 UP 

There isn’t much speed for an 8f race so I would like Carl Spackler and Goliad to finish ITM with big late runs by More Than Looks and Chili Flag.

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R12 8:25ET 8f D BCDirtMi-G1 3 UP 

Unlike the turf mile, this one does have a lot of early speed for 8f, so I’m looking for Post Time to gobble them up, and some good late running by Katonah. At least 2 of the 3 favorites will finish in the super.

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Good luck!

 

 

 

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