Weekend Winners Club

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If there’s one only one chart that you should look at, before spending your hard-earned money on the 150^th Kentucky Derby of 2024, besides The Grid of course, it’s the Major Preps History chart.  The reason is simple: You can normally cut the field in half before you even start.

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Yes it’s true that 93% of Kentucky Derby winners finished top two in their final prep race, normally one of the Big 6:  Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Blue Grass Stakes, Arkansas Derby, Louisiana Derby.  Further, 100% finished top 4 in their final prep, Big 6 or not.

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Who are this year’s contenders based on this factor?

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Here’s the full chart of winners and runners-up in the Big 6 Final Preps in the Baffert Era.

Major Kentucky Derby Prep Races 1997-Present

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By now you should know that all but one of my final ½ Derby Dozen +1 rankings consists of contenders from this list, which is no surprise.  Louisiana Derby winner Catching Freedom checks in at number one, with Honor Marie getting an Honorable mention.

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The outlier in my Top 7 is Forever Young, winner of all 5 career races and stamping his Kentucky Derby ticket in the UAE Derby, which as a Grade II race would be considered a Big 6 prep, if it were run in this hemisphere.  No UAE contender has ever won the roses, but some have finished well.

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It bears mentioning that the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks, run on artificial track, has made some noise recently in the Kentucky Derby.  2023 Jeff Ruby winner Two Phil’s was runner up in the Kentucky Derby, behind Florida Derby runner-up Mage, who was to be considered the top Fla Derby contender after the winner Forte scratched.

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In 2022, longshot Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike came out of a strong 3^rd place finish in the Jeff Ruby, following in the hoofsteps of Animal Kingdom, who won the Derby after winning the Jeff Ruby in 2011, when the race was known as the Spiral Stakes.

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This year the Jeff Ruby field was somewhat weaker than in other years, but Endlessly won it handily after winning the El Camino Real Derby, also on polytrack.  It’s tough to make a case for a horse that has never actually raced on dirt, but I said the same thing about Animal Kingdom in 2011, so count him in.

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For now, stick with my final Half Derby Dozen and One published on Friday.

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Get the Kentucky Derby Grid and The Grid for all your favorite tracks and races here.

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