Weekend Winners Club

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Friday, May 3 2024.

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(Other sites will give you some blah blah blah history of Derby etc here, as if you don’t know what it is.)  Here’s the long awaited Doug’s Derby Dozen.

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4 Catching Freedom 8-1 ML, Goldencents (Into Mischief) / Ma’am (Colonel John).

It’s not that he won the only 9.5 furlong prep race, it’s the way in which he did it. This talented colt from the API sireline, trained by the competent Brad Cox, has won 3 of 5 races including the G2 Louisiana Derby.  He likes to close from behind, and yet has never had a fast pace up front to run at.  They will likely run a legit pace in the Kentucky Derby, and doubting Flavien Prat atop would be a mistake.
Prediction: he gets the pace and wins the race.

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8 Just a Touch 10-1, Justify (Scat Daddy) / Touching Beauty (Tapit).

The potential on this one is through the roof.  Yes he lost his last 2 races, finishing a close 2^nd in both, including the Blue Grass G1 and before that the Gotham G3. Those were his 2^nd and 3^rd career starts for Brad Cox, and he continues to improve.  Without an abundance of early speed to burn him out, he should take another step forward.  Sire Justify, the last runner to earn the Triple Crown, following 3 total career races. Florent Geroux takes the mount.

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Resilience 20-1, Into Mischief (Harlan’s Holiday) / Meadowsweet (Smart Strike).

Winning the Wood Memorial nowadays isn’t that greatest feat in prep races, but he continues to improve for Bill Mott, peaking in the Wood. Perhaps the Wood wasn’t hard enough, but the fact is that he earned the 2^nd highest Grid PF and Bris PF (Fierceness) and is within a few points of the top Timeform figure.  Despite the fact that Junior Alvarado has won over 2000 races, he’s only 38 years old but a very seasoned Churchill jockey.

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Sierra Leone 3-1, Gun Runner (Candy Ride) / Heavenly Love (Malibu Moon).

First of all, just look at the pedigree.  Gun Runner was one of the best gun runners of last decade, winning the BC Classic among 4 other Grade 1 wins and a strong 3^rd in the Kentucky Derby.  He’s won 3 of 4 and various track conditions, and the only loss was by a nose. If he gets a legit pace up front, then it could be curtains for the competition.  If he doesn’t win, it’s because Tyler will run up on the heels of the frontrunner and then cry foul when it’s his fault.

11 Forever Young 10-1, Real Steel (Deep Impact) / Forever Darling (Congrats).

Most will overlook this horse, but that would be a mistake.  There’s a reason that he has won all 5 career races, all stakes races which include the G3 Saudi Derby. Last out in the G2 UAE Derby he ran from off the pace with a wide trip, which is very seldom a winning recipe at Dubai.  Despite the fact that his trainer and jockey have names that I can’t spell, it’s tough to dismiss. And records are made to be broken. Consider him a legit midshot.

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Just Steel 20-1, Justify (Scat Daddy) / Irish Lights (Fastnet Rock).

There’s a good back story about D. Wayne Lukas (hall of fame trainer of multiple Kentucky Derby wins) meeting Keith Asmussen 60 years ago.  That Asmussen was the father of hall of fame trainer Steve Asmussen and grandfather of first time Kentucky Derby jockey Keith Asmussen, aboard for this Saturday’s wild ride.  More than just a feel good story, and sired by TC winner Justify, it seems like Lukas has one more trick up his sleeve.  Wayne once told me backside at Churchill, he likes to box about 6 horses in a superfecta just for fun.  Consider this one boxed.

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Stronghold 20-1, Ghostzapper (Awesome Again) / Spectator (Jimmy Creed)

Ghostzapper was the most dominant 4 year old of his time, getting a late bloom which is usually the case for his offspring.  In this case, Stronghold has just rattled off victories in the G3 Sunland Derby and G1 Santa Anita Derby.  He should have more in the tank for D’Amato as relative unknown jockey Antonio Fresu gets the mount.

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Honorable mentions:

Fierceness, the ML favorite at 5-2, Pletcher, blah blah blah, etc.  Read it on other sites.

Society Man 20-1 legit long shot

Honor Marie 20-1 legit long shot

Endlessly 30-1 Jeff Ruby winner

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Get the Full Kentucky Derby Grid and the Grid for all your favorite tracks and races here.

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Bonus: Kentucky Oaks picks

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14 Leslie’s Rose 4-1 (Into Mischief) peaking after G1 Ashland win

11 Ways and Means 5-1 (Practical Joke) 2^nd in G2 GP Oaks

3 Where’s My Ring 15-1 (Twirling Candy) 1^st in G3 Gazelle

4 Power Squeeze 12-1 (Union Rags) 1^st in G2 GP Oaks

13 Just FYI 9-2 (Justify) 2^nd G1 Ashland

5 Thorpedo Anna (Fast Anna) 1^st in G1 Fantasy

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