Weekend Winners Club

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Monday, April 10.  9 days ago we released a last minute Dirty Dozen for the purpose of Kentucky Derby Pool 6 which closed on April 1 at 6pm, before the Florida and Arkansas Derbies were run, and well before the Big 3 prep races of April 8: The Wood, Bluegrass, and Santa Anita Derby.

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Here’s what we said and how it all unfolded.

April 1:  Florida Derby G1

Forte:  Ours (and everyone else’s) top ranked colt won the Florida Derby in a great stretch run.

Mage: 11^th in the Derby Dozen, ran an impressive 2^nd after we called on him to rebound from a bad trip.

“Mage will almost certainly be a single digit entry and may even be 2nd choice. He had an impressive debut maiden win but ran into a horrible trip after hitting the gate in the FOY.”

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April 1:  Arkansas Derby G1

Angel of Empire, who we had ranked 8^th, won the Ark Derby going away.

King Russell, who was on nobody’s radar, closed for 2^nd at 58-1.

Reincarnate and Rocket Can, who we had 14^th and 10^th ranked for Kentucky, rounded out the superfecta.

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Fast forward to April 8^th with the last 3 of the Big 5 Preps.

April 8:  Wood Memorial G2

Lord Miles, who was not a Pool 6 entry by any means, decided to win at 59-1.  If you saw that coming somehow, please tell me about it.

Hit Show, the Withers G3 winner and favorite, got second  whereas he was supposed to win.

Dreamlike, ranked 13^th in our last Dozen, got a strong 3^rd, only losing by a half length.

The thing about the Wood, is that it hasn’t made any noise in the Kentucky Derby for 20 years.  That was the year the top two, Empire Maker and Funny Cide, ran 2^nd and 1^st at Churchill, and then ran 1^st and 3^rd in the Belmont. It’s difficult for me to assign credence to the NY runners nowadays.  But of the top 3 here, I still like the potential of Todd’s Dreamlike as the best hope.

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April 8: Toyota Blue Grass Stakes Grade 1

Tapit Trice, who we had ranked 3^rd for Kentucky, won by a neck, giving Todd another entry.

To be perfectly honest as we always are here, I didn’t like any of the others in this race, but Verifying did take a big step up in class in holding on for 2^nd by a neck.  He may be ranked next week.

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April 8:  Santa Anita Derby G1

Practical Move, 2^nd ranked in our Dozen, got it done by a nose; his Derby ticket was already stamped.

Mandarin Hero, from Japan, first career race, 2^nd in a Grade 1 by a nose.  Hard to see that coming.

Skinner and National Treasure, who disappointed us again, ran 3 and 4 for Tim Yakteen.

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So the Dirty Dozen held up well, among those who have actually competed since then.  One that we would have liked to see on this continent but won’t until he shows up at Churchill Downs next month, is the Japanese bred Derma Sotogake.  His UAE Derby G1 win was quite impressive and we have him ranked 4^th.

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Another one of our highly ranked colts, #5 Geaux Rocket Ride, was scheduled to run in the SA Derby at 3-1 ML but was scratched with a fever and apparently has been pulled out of the Kentucky Derby as well, which is disappointing, but the health of the horses is the most important thing.

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Others that we didn’t mention here, they already ran their last prep, but don’t forget about the Louisiana Derby G2 exacta of Kingsbarns (Todd again) and Disarm (Asmussen).  They are likely to be back shelved from most minds on the first Saturday of May, but they are both contenders.

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We’ll do another Derby Dirty Dozen after the Lexington Stakes on April 15, after which we shall have a better gauge as to who will actually Run for the Roses.  A lot will change between now and May 6 as to who will actually race, so stay tuned to this site for the latest rankings and info.

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You can get the Derby Grid as well as the grids for all your favorite tracks and races, right here.

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