Loading ...May 20 2022
Preakness Preview Precap Premonition: Preakness- Derby connection and significance.
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Friday, May 20, 2022. The Preakness-Derby significance study is one of my most favorite statistical references of the year, because it’s always predictable and sturdily backed up by the historical results.
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It’s basically the same thing every year, if I could sum up this article in one sentence. Some of the top 8 Kentucky Derby contestants appear in the Preakness, and take up 2 or 3 of the top 4 finishes there. Triple Crown newcomers occupy the other 1-2 slots, and you can find them using the Grid.
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Look at figure 1, when the Derby champion competes in the Preakness, he wins half the time, and he’s in the superfecta over 90% of the time. We don’t have to worry about that this year since he’s a DNR.
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But top 8 Derby runners historically fare very well in the Preakness:
10 of 13 for Derby runners up finished ITM Preakness
8 of 12 Derby 3rd place were ITM in Preakness
3 of 5 Derby 4th place horses were also top 4 in the Preakness.
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The other thing to look at is the historical Preakness top 4, and where they finished in the Ky Derby, if they even ran it. So check that out too.
.
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In this year’s Preakness, who are we looking at? Only 3 from the Ky Derby are competing: Epicenter (2nd Ky Derby), Simplification (4th Derby), and Happy Jack (14th Derby).
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So you know who to key now, but not great odds. Also entering the mix is Secret Oath at 9-2. The Kentucky Oaks winning fillies have a great record in the Preakness, as does trainer Wayne Lukas.
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So far it’s looking quite chalky either way you put it, but normally a long shot makes its way somewhere into the superfecta. I have a couple for you.
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Skippylongstocking at 20-1 has continued to improve and sitting on a big one for the hottest trainer of the year Saffie Joseph.
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Creative Minister at 10-1ML and hopefully those odds hold up, has shown a strong ability for late running and it’s hard to tell what his cap is, but with Kenny training, I do like those odds.
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So based on the historical and current analysis, I like it with Early Voting on top.
Prediction: 5 8 1 4 9 2
If I hit that straight, I retire and you may not hear from me again, because I’m betting it $100 straight for the super high 5.
.
If not, you’ll continue to get free analysis for a while.
.
.
Good luck! 😀
.
Preakness Preview Precap Premonition: Preakness- Derby connection and significance.
.
Friday, May 20, 2022. The Preakness-Derby significance study is one of my most favorite statistical references of the year, because it’s always predictable and sturdily backed up by the historical results.
.
It’s basically the same thing every year, if I could sum up this article in one sentence. Some of the top 8 Kentucky Derby contestants appear in the Preakness, and take up 2 or 3 of the top 4 finishes there. Triple Crown newcomers occupy the other 1-2 slots, and you can find them using the Grid.
.
Look at figure 1, when the Derby champion competes in the Preakness, he wins half the time, and he’s in the superfecta over 90% of the time. We don’t have to worry about that this year since he’s a DNR.
FIGURE 1
.
But top 8 Derby runners historically fare very well in the Preakness:
10 of 13 for Derby runners up finished ITM Preakness
8 of 12 Derby 3rd place were ITM in Preakness
3 of 5 Derby 4th place horses were also top 4 in the Preakness.
.
The other thing to look at is the historical Preakness top 4, and where they finished in the Ky Derby, if they even ran it. So check that out too.
.
PREAKNESS CHART.
.
In this year’s Preakness, who are we looking at? Only 3 from the Ky Derby are competing: Epicenter (2nd Ky Derby), Simplification (4th Derby), and Happy Jack (14th Derby).
.
So you know who to key now, but not great odds. Also entering the mix is Secret Oath at 9-2. The Kentucky Oaks winning fillies have a great record in the Preakness, as does trainer Wayne Lukas.
.
So far it’s looking quite chalky either way you put it, but normally a long shot makes its way somewhere into the superfecta. I have a couple for you.
.
Skippylongstocking at 20-1 has continued to improve and sitting on a big one for the hottest trainer of the year Saffie Joseph.
.
Creative Minister at 10-1ML and hopefully those odds hold up, has shown a strong ability for late running and it’s hard to tell what his cap is, but with Kenny training, I do like those odds.
.
So based on the historical and current analysis, I like it with Early Voting on top.
Prediction: 5 8 1 4 9 2
If I hit that straight, I retire and you may not hear from me again, because I’m betting it $100 straight for the super high 5.
.
If not, you’ll continue to get free analysis for a while.
.
.
Good luck! 😀
.
.
.
