Weekend Winners Club

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Wednesday, May 1, Churchill Downs. Today we take our annual look at perhaps the most critical set of historical factors for the Kentucky Derby: The final prep race and specifically the Big 5 final preps. This answers a set of criteria in the Grid concerning performance in a major prep race.
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It can best be seen by looking at a very busy chart of such prep races that goes back to 1997 which is the beginning of the Baffert Era (a term coined by this site, but feel free to use it). 1997 is the year that Bob Baffert won his first of now 5 Kentucky Derby titles, among many other Triple Crown races, including 2 Triple Crown champions in the past 4 years.
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The horses in the darker blue are those who actually own the Kentucky Derby. Seems like one of them every year from the Big 5 preps right? Just about. The Big 5 by the way are Florida, Wood, Arkansas, Blue Grass, and Wood. The column on the right tells it all when summed up.
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Statistically speaking, what does this tell us by the numbers?
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For the 22 Kentucky Derby winners:
100% were top 4 in their final prep
91% were 1st or 2nd in their final prep
82% were in a Big 5 final prep
64% won their final prep
100% of the last 8 won their final prep.
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For the 44 winners and runners up combined:
100% of top 2 Kentucky Derby horses were top 4 in their final prep
82% were in a Big 5 final prep
80% were top 2 in their final prep
59% won their final prep
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The Louisiana Derby is included in the chart because it’s still trying to make a case for the Big 6, but it’s still of questionable relevance for Derby champions. Only 2 Louisiana champions went on to win the Roses, Black Gold in 1924 and Grindstone in 1996, the year before the Baffert Era. That could change, but I don’t think it will be this year.
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The handicapping ability of this information is obvious. First you’ve narrowed potential winners down to the block of 10 at the top, cutting the Kentucky Derby field in half. Bodexpress made the Derby as an alternate, so he is also considered.
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If you’ve been following our Derby Dozen, you’d have seen that only 5 of those have ever been in our top 5, so we’re narrowing it down even further to those 5. The top 2 in the Arkansas and Santa Anita Derby, plus the Florida Derby winner. Those are the current top 5 and most likely champions.
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That conclusion is based mostly on watching the races this year and comparing the competition, but it’s backed by our historical study here. Note that in the past 10 years, those are clearly the 3 races most relevant in producing Kentucky Derby winners and runners-up. Obviously oddsmaker Mike Battaglia agrees.
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The other reason we’re taking the top 2 in certain races is because they were separated by a length or less. In those preps where the winner was multiple lengths in front at the wire, we’ll only use that winner as a potential winner.
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So based on this analysis, and after the scratch of Omaha Beach, our potential winners list would be:
Game Winner
Roadster
Improbable
Maximum Security

Alternates likely to finish in the money should the mighty falter:
Bodexpress
Vekoma
Tacitus
By My Standards
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Others to wheel at bottom of exotics.
Cutting Humor (Sunland Derby)
Tax
Win Win Win
Spinoff
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So you might as well just box the top 4 in an exacta right now and get it out of the way, then look for some good long shots in the 3rd or 4th spots. The top 2 finishers might not have good odds but nor have they in the past few years and in some cases no odds until the superfecta sleeper.
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How do you get the full Kentucky Derby Grid? Check here.

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