Weekend Winners Club

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Saturday, April 13, 2019. Hot Springs, Arkansas has a huge racing weekend to get underway at 1:30PM ET, including the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby and G2 Oaklawn Handicap today, along with the Count Fleet G3 Sprint and several MSW races to see how the 3yo’s are stacking up to the big boys.
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We have said before on this site that the Rebel G2 stakes day with 2 divisions was the strongest Derby Prep day of the year and that remains true to this day. Even though the Big 3 prep day was perhaps the most important because of all the colts that secured their Derby tickets, the fields weren’t as strong.
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The 11 horse Arkansas Derby represents the 2nd strongest prep field of the year, with both Rebel G2 winners, 1 runner up, and 1 3rd place horse facing off. The other runner up was of course Game Winner, who went back to Cali and ran 2nd to stablemate Roadster in the G1 Santa Anita Derby. Louisiana Derby 4th place runner Country House joins the field to try and pick up 10 more points and get into the big one.
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So we have Improbable, again the favorite, who improbably lost Rebel 1 as the heavy favorite, again facing Long Range Toddy at 5-1, who caught him at the wire. Also in the field is Galilean who held on for 3rd in that race. The virtual co-favorite will be Omaha Beach, one of two horses to ever beat Game Winner, in Rebel 2 last month.
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With all the speed in this race, meaning 6 horses with at least 6 Quirin speed points, and 3 with 8 each, it’s impossible to not look at Country House, the only pure late runner who also has top LP in the field. In fact, he has 3rd best LP among all 3yo Derby contenders. He didn’t get a very strong pace up front in the Louisiana, so this could be his big chance.
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Of course, you also have to watch for strategery. Country House likely only needs 10 points to run for the roses, meaning once he gets up for 4th he won’t be asked for more. There’s also the fact with all the speed on paper, there could be major restraint exercised by jockeys all around, and end up with a moderate pace that sets up perfectly for the chalk.
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As far as points are concerned, let’s look at what each horse needs as a worst finish to get in. We’re going to assume 40 points are needed for the Derby field for now, although it will probably end up being 30-something after scratches.
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Prg	Horse	Odds	Style	Points	Need
1	Improbable	1.6	EP6	25	3rd
2	Six Shooter	30	P3	2	2nd
3	Omaha Beach	2	EP8	37.5
4	Tikhvin Flew	30	E5	0	2nd
5	Laughing Fox	20	P2	0	2nd
6	Gray Attempt	8	E8	10	2nd
7	Galilean	10	E8	7.5	2nd
8	Country House	12	S0	30	4th
9	One Flew South	50	E6	0	2nd
10	Jersey Agenda	30	E7	0	2nd
11	Long Range Toddy	5	EP6	53.5

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As you can see, by far most of them need a 1st or 2nd place finish to get a Kentucky Derby ticket, which is a tall order for those pointless horses against those we already mentioned. Long Range Toddy is the only one who definitely doesn’t need any points, and Omaha Beach will likely get in either way. But remember, these are the 2 Rebel winners, and they’re not here to lose.
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Improbable may get in with a 4th place finish but needs 3rd to really secure it, and as mentioned Country House just needs to finish 4th, which is his worst career finish on dirt. The rest of the field quite frankly are praying to the racing gods and hoping some magic will happen to get them a lucky 2nd place. It worked in the Florida Derby for someone, so who knows?
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But here’s how we see it finishing up:
Improbable
Country House (Official long shot special)
Long Range Toddy
Omaha Beach
Galilean or Gray Attempt
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In which case, the top 4 listed will all get their Derby tickets and be happy. Not that it will be rigged, but they know what’s at stake and those are the most talented horses in the field. Those 4 are all in our top 12 Derby Dozen as well, with 3 of them in the top 5.
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