Weekend Winners Club

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April 5, 2019. Again overdue, the new Doug’s Double Derby Dozen and One (i.e. top 25) is out just in time for Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 4 which begins today and runs through Sunday. This is no coincidence, and we also posted the Futures Pool Grid separately to show how the competition stacks up.
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But as an added resource, we also have the Double Derby Dozen. You have to admit, you want to know how the experts are ranking the field. Not armchair media morons, but real experts who delve into the statistical natures of the beautiful beasts we call horses.
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Along with the Top 25 ranking, you get a description and rationale for each of the top 12. You will see that from the two Rebel fields the top 4 are in the top 5 of this list. This is no mistake, and after careful consideration, it is still believed that the Rebel was the strongest prep field(s) of the year so far.
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The probable next race out is definite for those this weekend and highly probable for the Arkansas field. Note the added formatting, the horses in green fill have acquired enough points for the Kentucky Derby, whether they will be racing again before that or not. Without further ado, here they are!
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1. Game Winner (Candy Ride, RAN). Bob Baffert’s top trainee was the undefeated 2yo and BC Juvenile Champion, finally making a way late but anticipated debut in mid march. Slated to race in the San Felipe Stakes in early March, the debut was again delayed due to the closure of Santa Anita. He shipped to Oaklawn where they provided two Rebel G2 fields for SA transplants, and got a valiant 2nd in the Rebel 2 field. Gaining with every stride, he came up a nose short of Omaha Beach who was clinging to dear life. Another furlong and Game Winner easily wins. The two dusted the rest of the field by 8 lengths. Game Winner returns to Santa Anita this weekend where 5 horses, including stablemate Roadster, will dare to take him on. Instagrand appears to be the only serious contender in that one.
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2. Improbable (City Zip, RAN). Bob Baffert’s 2nd best 3yo this year also shipped to Oaklawn but that was probably planned all along. He had a great effort, vaulting to the lead past front runners into the stretch, and was clear for a moment before getting caught late by Long Range Toddy. In hindsight, Drayden Van Dyke would probably have held him back 1 more furlong, but that’s racing. He will next start in the Arkansas Derby G1 at Oaklawn April 13, in which he may actually need some top 4 points to secure his Kentucky Derby ticket.
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3. Omaha Beach (War Front, ND). Richard Mandella was also forced to ship his top trainee East early due to SA issues. He got the lead by half a mile in Rebel 2, tried to separate, then held on gamely over to get the big win by a nose over Game Winner. Even had he been caught, he proved that his 9 length maiden win in his 5th try was no fluke. He is probable for the Arkansas Derby G1 April 13.
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4. Maximum Security (New Year’s Day, RAN). Jason Servis decided an 18 length win in a 7f OC was good enough for his undefeated colt to try his hand in the Florida Derby G1 on March 30. He set a comfortable lead early, making it impossible for anyone else in the field to catch him as he continued to drive away from the field. Although a frontrunner, he gets great LP marks due to his habit of running away from the competition. His next start will be May 4 at Churchill.
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5. Long Range Toddy (Take Charge Indy, API). Steve Asmussen’s best hope all year has been this guy, whose worst loss was by 2 lengths in his maiden debut. Since then, his last 4 are 2 wins, a 2nd and 3rd in stakes races. Most impressive was his last race out, the Rebel 1 field, where he broke well then rated, making a great late move to catch favored Improbable. Steve has never been shy about racing a horse once a month, so he’s expected in the Arkansas Derby, which will be just 3 weeks before The Derby.
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6. Code of Honor (Noble Mission, ND). Shoog McGaughey’s top mount had trouble trying to catch Maximum Security in the Florida Derby last out, hanging around the rear of the field for a bit too long considering the slow pace. Before that he looked great winning the Fountain of Youth G2 adding to his impressive resume so far. With a strong pace up front, he’s very dangerous. Next up, Kentucky Derby.
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7. Cutting Humor (First Samurai, SCAT). Todd Pletcher took a while to get his first definite Kentucky Derby entrants, waiting until the 3rd weekend in March to secure two slots. This was the 2nd after an impressive win in the Sunland Derby G3 on March 24. Usually an overlooked race, he did catch El Camino Derby winner Anothertwistafate, who had made dust of his past 3 fields. He also put away what was Baffert’s 3rd best steed in that race, Mucho Gusto, who falls out of our top 12 this week. Next stop: Churchill Downs May 4.
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8. Bourbon War (Tapit, API). Mark Hennig’s top 3yo is probably a surprise to some and not in many top 12 lists, but to our surprise he actually appears as an entry in Futures Pool 4. The fact is that he has top LP in the Grid among those in the futures pool, and is probably the best pure late runner. He too had trouble trying to catch the leader in the Florida Derby after the moderate pace, but before that almost caught Code of Honor in the FOY after a swift pace up front. Next up Kentucky Derby.
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9. War of Will (War Front, ND). The Mark Casse trainee earned the nickname WOW after a streak of impressive wins over suspect fields in the Lecomte and Risen Star Stakes, before falling flat in the Louisiana Derby last month, when the competition increased. Regardless, he lost to several there that he had beaten easily before, so there has to be some excuse. It’s still hard to know where to rank him, but his body of work earns him a top 12 ranking of some kind. We’ll see what he’s got left in the tank in the Kentucky Derby.
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10. By My Standards (Goldencents, SCAT). Bret Calhoun got his first official Derby contender with this surprise 22-1 winner of the Louisiana Derby G2. It looked like a huge step up in class from his prior race, his 1st win in 4 tries to break his maiden. The strength of the La Derby field is still suspect, but we’ll keep him in the top 10 for now until we see what happens in the rest of the major preps. Next up Kentucky Derby.
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11. Country House (Lookin at Lucky, RAN). Bill Mott has at least two going to the big one this year, and I believe this to be the best of them. 4th in the Louisiana Derby doesn’t seem that impressive, but his consistent late running ability puts him in the money every time. I consider him the co-top late runner with Bourbon War. He has a great pedigree and should be at huge odds in the Kentucky Derby.
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12a. Tacitus (Tapit, API). Bill Mott’s 2nd comes off a nice win in the Tampa Bay Derby, in which the field strength was suspect as it always is. Nonetheless he won, and gets to prove whether he’s for real in the Wood tomorrow against slightly better competition, because we don’t really know after 3 career races and 1 stakes race against weak competition. Next up: Wood Memorial April 6.
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12b. Tax (Arch, TTO). Danny Gargan is a name that won’t ring a lot of bells with the majority of recreational horse players, but he’s done a great job so far bringing this horse along, from 3rd in the Remsen G2 to a Withers G3 win in Feb. Regardless, he looks to be about 20 points short of a Kentucky Derby ticket, so he needs a 3rd place or better finish this weekend. The Wood will determine which, if any, or both, of these co-#12 contenders can remain in the top 12.
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To look up more info on any of these horses, look for them in the Futures Pool 4 Grid and Pp’s, and even if they’re not in those files, you can always use the search button at the top of this page and every page that they’re in will be represented.

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The full top 25 in text:
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Rank	Horse	Trainer	Sire	Line	Last	Race Out	Next (Probable)
1	Game Winner	Bob Baffert	Candy Ride	RAN	2nd	Rebel 2 G2 Mar.16	Sta.Anita Derby G1 Apr6
2	Improbable	Bob Baffert	City Zip	RAN	2nd	Rebel 1 G2 Mar.16	Ark. Derby G1 Mar.13
3	Omaha Beach	Richard Mandella	War Front	ND	1st	Rebel 2 G2 Mar.16	Ark. Derby G1 Mar.13
4	Maximum Security	Jason Servis	New Year’s Day	RAN	1st	Fla Derby G1 Mar30	Kentucky Derby May 4
5	Long Range Toddy	Steve Asmussen	Take Charge Indy	API	1st	Rebel 1 G2 Mar.16	Ark. Derby G1 Mar.13
6	Code of Honor	Shug McGaughey	Noble Mission	ND	3rd	Fla Derby G1 Mar30	Kentucky Derby May 4
7	Cutting Humor	Todd Pletcher	First Samurai	SCAT	1st	Sun.Dby G3 Mar24	Kentucky Derby May 4
8	Bourbon War	Mark Hennig	Tapit	API	4th	Fla Derby G1 Mar30	Kentucky Derby May 4
9	War of Will	Mark Casse	War Front	ND	9th	Louis.Dby G2 Mar23	Kentucky Derby May 4
10	By My Standards	Bret Calhoun	Goldencents	SCAT	1st	Louis.Dby G2 Mar23	Kentucky Derby May 4
11	Country House	Bill Mott	Lookin at Lucky	RAN	4th	Louis.Dby G2 Mar23	Kentucky Derby May 4
12	Tacitus	Bill Mott	Tapit	API	1st	TB Derby G2 Mar.9	Wood Mem G1 Apr.6
12	Tax	Danny Gargan	Arch	TTO	1st	Withers G3 Feb.2	Wood Mem G1 Apr.6
14	Mucho Gusto	Bob Baffert	Mucho Macho Man	HBUL	3rd	Sun.Dby G3 Mar24	Lexington G3 Apr.13
15	Roadster	Bob Baffert	Quality Road	RAN	1st	OC80n1x SA Mar11	Sta.Anita Derby G1 Apr6
16	Anothertwistafate	Blaine Wright	Scat Daddy	SCAT	2nd	Sun.Dby G3 Mar24	Kentucky Derby May 4
17	Vekoma	George Weaver	Candy Ride	RAN	3rd	Ftn.Youth G2 Mar.2	Blue Grass G2 Apr.6
18	Bodexpress	Gustavo Delgado	Bodemeister	RAN	2nd	Fla Derby G1 Mar30	Kentucky Derby May 4
19	Outshine	Todd Pletcher	Malibu Moon	API	2nd	TB Derby G2 Mar.9	Wood Mem G1 Apr.6
20	Haikal	Kirian McLaughlin	Daaher	ND	1st	Gotham G3 Mar.9	Wood Mem G1 Apr.6
21	Plus Que Parfait	Brendan Walsh	Point of Entry	TTO	1st	UAE Derby G2 Mar30	Kentucky Derby May 4
22	Spinoff	Todd Pletcher	Hard Spun	ND	2nd	Louisiana Dby Mar23	Kentucky Derby May 4
23	Win Win Win	Michael Trombetta	Hat Trick	TTO	3rd	TB Derby G2 Mar.9	Blue Grass G2 Apr.6
24	Instagrand	Jerry Hollendorfer	Into Mischief	SCAT	3rd	Gotham G3 Mar.9	Sta.Anita Derby G1 Apr6
25	Hoffa’s Union	Mark Casse	Union Rags	ND	1st	Mdn40k LRL Feb28	Wood Mem G1 Apr.6
25	Signalman	Kenny McPeek	General Quarters	API	7th	Ftn.Youth G2 Mar.2	Blue Grass G2 Apr.6

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