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Speed Points- Bill Quirin Style

For Sprint Races: 

  1. Use the three most recent races
  2. Routes:  give a bye to any horse who competed in a route and led or was within 1 length of leader at 1C.  Proceed to the next ratable sprint or issue another bye.  2 byes maximum.
  3. Assign 1 pt for any sprint in which the horse was 1,2, or 3 at 1C
  4. Assign 1 pt for a sprint in which the horse was w/in 2L at 1C (w/in 3L if race was 1f shorter than today’s)
  5. Award 1 bonus point to horse who led or was w/in 1L of the leader at 1C in ALL 3 rated races
  6. Each horse starts with one point, but take it away if it fails to beat half the field by 1C in all 3 races

 

Exceptions: 

1.      Horses with < 3 ratable races, extrapolate their amount of points that they got in the 1 or 2 races

2.      Suggest using the most recent wet track or turf race for race #3 if today’s race is on turf or wet track as a substitute if the other recent races were not.

 

For route races:

  1. Use the 3 most recent races
  2. Assign 1 point for any route or sprint in which the horse was 1, 2, or 3 at 1C
  3. Assign 1 point for any route in which the horse ran w/in 3L of lead at 1C
    1. If route was ¼  or more mile longer than today’s route, give point only if they led at 1C
  4. Sprints:  assign 1 pt for sprint in which horse was w/in 3L at 1C
    1. Also assign point if horse was within 6L at 1C.

 

Analysis:

  • Any horse with 8 points is a front runner or leader, and will be on the pace
  • A horse with 7 pts is likely to be on or very close to the pace
  • When 3 horses in a race combined for 21-24 speed points, or four have a total of 27+, the pace is very likely to be hot.  24 and above being extremely hot.  Pace will likely fall apart and late movers will have a better chance than usual.
  • 17-20 is a medium hot pace, and any pace below is fairly slow.
  • On a stretch runner’s track, lower the criteria to 18 for 3 and 23 for 4 horses
  • For a frontrunner’s track, top contenders will most likely be the top point earners
  • When a horse has a 4 point advantage over all rivals, he should be examined for a probable lone front running trip wire to wire
  • When a horse has at least 5 points AND a 2 point edge over all rivals, a pace advantage exists and he must be considered as a lone front runner
  • When the top speed point horse in the field has 4 pts, the pace will be slower than par for the class.  This can lead to a lone front runner or a chaotic race

Running Style:

  • As important as speed points is a horse's running style, defined as the following:
  • E: Early runner.  Usually on the lead or within 1 lenght at first call, fades when doesn't make lead, and usually ends up fading anyway unless getting a comfortable pace.
  • EP:  Early/Presser.  Will run early if nobody else does but can also rate close to the lead and overtake leaders at some point in the race. Must occasionally close on the lead, or else it's an E. 
  • P: Pace Presser.  Rarely found on the lead but usually close enough to the pace to put in a late run. If doesn't ever put in a closing late run, it's not a P but an E. 
  • S: Sustained runner. Horse runs toward the rear of pack at an even rate, and hopefully puts in a good close when early runners collapse, or just on virtue of a great closing kick. 
  • A lone E horse can mean a frontrunning victory for a horse even if it's speed figures are subpar.
  • If there are no E's in the race, despite the speed points as described above, the pace could be moderate or even subpar. An S horse with a good early pace rating is dangerous, but will almost never run on the lead, so unless there are early runners, it will usually not win.
  • Lots of E horses can mean a fast and collapsing pace conducive to a P or S horse winning.
  • EP and P horses, those with tactical speed, win the majority of races in the US. 
  • Every race must be examined for the pace scenario after scratches, considering the track condition and bias at the moment of the race. 

Running Style and Speed Points Combined:

  • The full running style of the horse is a result of the combination of the running style listed above, followed by the speed points as calculated earlier. Examples:
  • E8:  runner who is on lead or within 1 length of it every time, and seldom if ever closes from behind.
  • EP6:  possibly the greatest running style in North America, the horse is usually within 1 to 2 to 3 lengths of the lead and at least sometimes puts in a closing run for a good win place or show
  • P3:  classic stalker which is normally located in mid-pack and offers a good chance for closing toward the lead if the pace is honest, fast, or hot
  • S0:  sustained runner or plodder who is always at the rear of the pack during the early going, but hopefully can offer a great late kick, with chances improved if the pace is fast or hot.