Weekend Winners Club

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Tuesday April 30, 2019. Churchill Downs. The final Derby Dozen is here, taking into account those who actually made the field this morning during the Kentucky Derby post draw. Surprisingly there have been no withdrawn entries out of the top 20 and there is only 1 alternate who needs a scratch by 9am Friday.
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This will be the final Derby Dozen of the season. Making one after the Derby would be rather vain. After that, we’ll have the Preakness Pack and Belmont Bunch or something to that effect. But for now let’s focus on the Kentucky Derby and the top 12 horses going in, now that all the posts have been picked and morning lines assigned. It’s looking like an all-Baffert trifecta is a definite possibility this year, another feat to add to his incredible list of achievements.
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1. Game Winner (Candy Ride, RAN). Bob Baffert’s 2yo champ managed to hold on to his top slot in the Dozen, despite losing both his races this year. What?! Well, if you watched the races, you’d see the losses were both narrow and could have gone either way. In the Rebel 2 Stakes, he almost ran down Omaha Beach, gaining with every stride but the wire came too fast. In the Santa Anita Derby, he managed to somehow go 4 wide around both turns in a race with only 6 contenders, and took the lead in stretch before getting caught by stablemate Roadster who had a nice ground saving trip towards the rear. Roadster also needed 1st or 2nd. Game Winner, who ran the better race, did not need any points.
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2. Omaha Beach (War Front, ND). Richard Mandella’s top mount got promoted to second after beating one each of Baffert’s top horses in the Arkansas Derby and Rebel Stakes. Last out he took the lead by the first half a mile and Improbable gave chase but couldn’t get closer than a length. With any pressure up front it’s possible he could be caught with another furlong to go at Churchill this Saturday. Maximum Security may be the only one to go with him, but if they throw down early it could be ugly for both.
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3. Roadster (Quality Road, RAN). Baffert’s now 2nd best 3yo (or 1st best according to some) launched into the top 5 after winning the Santa Anita Derby. It was only his 2nd stakes race (compared to 5 from Game Winner, including 3 G1 wins, but he did everything asked in his 4th career race, had a great trip, and came out on top. I’d like to see a more solid body of work, but his previous stakes race was only a 2 length loss to Game Winner in the G1 Del Mar Futurity last year, so it’s not like the SA win was a fluke. Either way he belongs in this top 5 conversation here and will likely hit the board.
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4. Improbable (City Zip, RAN). Bob Baffert’s now 3rd best 3yo is still ranked very highly here. He had 2 great runs this year, and like Game Winner came up 2nd both times. Last out in the Arkansas he chased Omaha Beach around the track and wound up a length short. Before that in Rebel 1 it looked like he’d win but moved to soon and got caught with a career run by Long Range Toddy. It’s not like he gave up; he was still fighting but lost by a length. These top 4 all seem somewhat interchangeable and it will depend on how the pace plays out in Kentucky for the most part. It really could be an all-Baffert trifecta this year.
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5. Maximum Security (New Year’s Day, RAN). Jason Servis decided an 18 length win in a 7f OC was good enough for his undefeated colt to try his hand in the Florida Derby G1 on March 30, his 1st stakes race and 4th career start. He set a comfortable lead early, making it impossible for anyone else in the field to catch him as he continued to drive away from the field. Although a frontrunner, he gets great LP marks due to his habit of running away from the competition. He’s 1 of 4 in the Kentucky Derby who have not been passed by anyone in a race (or beaten) and the only one with two triple digit Beyers and Brisnet figures. A speed duel with Omaha Beach could compromise both of them, especially if others pile on.
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6. Tacitus (Tapit, API). Bill Mott’s now top Derby horse, in terms of points anyway, comes off two G2 wins in the Tampa Bay Derby and Wood Memorial, putting him in the points lead with 50 and 100 each. He’s put up some solid performance figures, but those 2 races have notoriously weak fields in recent years, including this year. He beat Tax and Haikal in the Wood, but those two aren’t exactly cream of the crop either. However, he’s done everything asked and he should be able to finish in the money if he keeps up the great efforts.
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7. Country House (Lookin at Lucky, RAN). Bill Mott’s 2nd contestant is a very solid late running closer. His body of work finishing 3rd, 4th, and 2nd in his 3 graded Derby preps was enough to get him into the field. Because of his great sustained running ability, he can rarely be counted out of any classic distance race. He has the 2nd best LP in the field behind Maximum Security, and is 1 of the 4 who has never been passed in his 6 races. If the front runners create some heat up front he’ll be in really good shape at the end.
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8. By My Standards (Goldencents, SCAT). Bret Calhoun got his first official Derby contender with this surprise 22-1 winner of the Louisiana Derby G2. It looked like a huge step up in class from his prior race, his 1st win in 4 tries to break his maiden. The strength of the La Derby field is still suspect, but he did earn solid performance figures for that race, beating 3 others in the Kentucky Derby field, and another that was an alternate until the post draw.
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9. Vekoma (Candy Ride, RAN). George Weaver makes a rare run for the roses with this lightly raced colt who won the Blue Grass G2 in his 4th career start, adding to his Nashua G3 title. Like the Wood, that field however seemed somewhat weak. Only 1 other will run for the roses from the BG, and that being based almost entirely on his 2nd place finish. Both he and Win Win Win needed 1st or 2nd to get in, but get in they did, and anything can happen now. Tactical speed will help him avoid a pace duel and should put him in good position no matter what they do up front.
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10. Tax (Arch, TTO). Danny Gargan gets his first run for the roses with this gelding. He’s done very well, finishing 2nd, 1st, and 3rd in his 3 graded prep races in NY, all at 9f which is the best distance to prep at since no 10f preps are offered in this hemisphere. He’s currently the only gelding in the field which sucks for him, but geldings have won the Kentucky Derby before. The NY fields were suspect as mentioned, and Tacitus came out on top in the Wood. Brisnet players will be cheering for his 4th straight triple digit Brisnet speed figure, as he’s 1 of only 2 in the field with more than 1 such rating.
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11. Win Win Win (Hat Trick, TTO). This isn’t Michael Trombetta’s first rodeo by any means, and he’s got a legitimate shot at the purse money with this solid late runner. He got an honest pace in the Blue Grass G2 and went from 13th to 2nd to get his Derby ticket. He’s hoping for the speed duel up front to sweep by the tiring field as he usually does. He’s 1 of the 4 in the field to have not been passed in any of his 5 career races
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12. Haikal (Daaher, ND). Kirian McLaughlin is always dangerous in the big races, and this solid closer always gives him a chance. He’s 3rd in the Grid for Stamina and LP, and not far off the top power rating. Like other trainers we’ve mentioned, KMac will be hoping for that speed duel up front so Haikal can put up the big sweeping late run and gobble up tiring runners. His worst career finish is 3rd in the Wood which was only his 2nd loss. The last of 4 in this field to have not been passed in his 5 career races.
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Other dangerous horses that could strike at the money if things go right for them and wrong for others:
Code of Honor, Long Range Toddy, Cutting Humor
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Get the full Kentucky Derby Grid here before they sell out!
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